Why Now? Five Possible Reasons Why Violence Flared in Palestine and Israel.
The latest violence in Gaza comes in a larger context of 60+ years of war and oppression between Palestinians and Israelis. Obviously, very few, if any, actually know the motives behind the specific timing of this attack. Here are 5 possible reasons that answer the question “why now?” (This non-exhaustive list includes what I’ve come across through research and conversation and they do not necessarily reflect my personal beliefs.)
1. Israeli Elections
With Israeli elections approaching in January, Netanyahu felt that action in Gaza would bolster his party’s chances of winning the maximum number of seats. While his Likud plus Yisrael Beitenu ticket were cruising to victory not too long ago, many speculate that Netanyahu’s fear piqued at rumors of his rivals Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni joining forces. While this hypothesis seems steeped in cynicism, Operation Cast Lead occurred in the shadow of an election, which certainly supports this theory.
2. Israel preparing for attack on Iran
Not long ago, talk of a possible Israeli strike on Iran dominated headlines. The talk subsided after Israel implicitly stated that no attack would come until after January elections. However, the Middle East has greatly changed since Israel last engaged an Arab or Muslim enemy. Not only could this have been a dry run for new armaments, but also a test of “post/during – Arab Spring” Arab and Muslim community’s reaction to violence towards one of its members.
3. Iran and Syria diverting attention
Not only is the Iranian government facing international economic and political isolation, but also one of its closest allies in Syria teeters on the brink of collapse. Perhaps Iran, in conjunction with Syria, implored Hamas and/or other factions to initiate violence to distract from domestic plights and take advantage of less scrutiny. I want to add that Hamas has significantly pivoted away from the Syrian regime and Iran’s influence on the group has long been exaggerated. However, this does not discount the possibility of other, splinter groups working on behalf of these foreign powers.
4. Hamas moving to further sideline Fatah and the PLO
With reconciliation talks stalled, Hamas could desire further weakening their PA rivals. The results of the ceasefire may point to that: a total bypass of the Palestinian Authority, who were limited to nothing more than hollow complaints and a few soundbites on international media sources, as well as the temporary amnesia in regards to the PA’s UN bid for statehood. Palestinians frustrated at the lack of progress on ending the occupation may look to Hamas and see a group at least willing to stand up to Israel and force them to come to some type of terms.
5. Assassinating Ahmed al-Jaabari to dampen chances of long-term ceasefire between Hamas and Israel
A statement by an Israeli activist and intermediary between past Israel – Hamas negotiations hypothesized that the IDF assassinated al-Jaabari in order to inflict fatal damage on the possibility of a long term ceasefire. According to Gershon Baskin, al-Jaabari had seen his latest proposal for the terms of this ceasefire just hours before his assassination and was expected to reply with a reaction from inside Gaza a day later. Readers can check Baskin’s article out for more in-depth information (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/opinion/israels-shortsighted-assassination.html).
Even though these five reasons have wide acceptance in some influential circles, more theories abound, and the truth probably lies somewhere in between a variety of reasons.